SOLOMON saith, There is no new thing upon the earth. So that as Plato had an imagination, That all knowledge was but remembrance; so Solomon giveth his sentence, That all novelty is but oblivion. Whereby you may see, that the river of Lethe runneth as well above ground as below. There is an abstruse astrologer that saith, If it were not for two things that are constant (the one is, that the fixed stars ever stand a like distance one from another, and never come nearer together, nor go further asunder; the other, that the diurnal motion perpetually keepeth time), no individual would last one moment. Certain it is, that the matter is in a perpetual flux, and never at a stay. The great winding-sheets, that bury all things in oblivion, are two; deluges and earthquakes. As for conflagrations and great droughts, they do not merely dispeople and destroy. Phaeton's car went but a day. And the three years' drought in the time of Elias, was but particular, and left people alive. As for the great burnings by lightnings, which are often in the West Indies, they are but narrow. But in the other two destructions, by deluge and earthquake, it is further to be noted, that the remnant of people which hap to be reserved, are commonly ignorant and mountainous people, that can give no account of the time past; so that the oblivion is all one, as if none had been left. If you consider well of the people of the West Indies, it is very probable that they are a newer or a younger people, than the people of the Old World. And it is much more likely, that the destruction that hath heretofore been there, was not by earthquakes (as the Egyptian priest told Solon concerning the island of Atlantis, that it was swallowed by an earthquake), but rather that it was desolated by a particular deluge. For earthquakes are seldom in those parts. But on the other side, they have such pouring rivers, as the rivers of Asia and Africk and Europe, are but brooks to them. Their Andes, likewise, or mountains, are far higher than those with us; whereby it seems, that the remnants of generation of men, were in such a particular deluge saved. As for the observation that Machiavel hath, that the jealousy of sects, doth much extinguish the memory of things; traducing Gregory the Great, that he did what in him lay, to extinguish all heathen antiquities; I do not find that those zeals do any great effects, nor last long; as it appeared in the succession of Sabinian, who did revive the former antiquities.
Solomon says there is nothing new on earth. Plato imagined that all knowledge was simply memory. In the same way, Solomon declares that all novelty is simply forgetting. So we can see that Lethe, the river of forgetfulness, runs above ground as well as below. One obscure astrologer says that no individual thing would last a moment without two constant features of the heavens. First, the fixed stars always remain the same distance apart, never moving closer together or farther apart. Second, the daily motion of the heavens always keeps its regular pace. Certainly, matter is constantly changing and never stands still. Two great burial shrouds cover everything in forgetfulness: floods and earthquakes. Great fires and droughts do not completely wipe out populations and destroy everything. Phaethon's chariot ran for only a day. The three-year drought in Elijah's time affected only one region and left people alive. The great fires caused by lightning, which often occur in the West Indies, cover only small areas. But with floods and earthquakes, there is another point to consider. The survivors are usually uneducated mountain people who can give no account of the past. The resulting forgetfulness is therefore as complete as if no one had survived. If you carefully consider the peoples of the West Indies, they very probably have a shorter history than Old World peoples. It is much more likely that an earlier destruction there came from a regional flood rather than earthquakes. An Egyptian priest told Solon that the island of Atlantis had been swallowed by an earthquake. But earthquakes are rare in those regions. Their rivers, however, flow in such volume that those of Asia, Africa, and Europe seem mere brooks beside them. Their Andes, or mountains, are also far higher than ours. It therefore seems that survivors of the human race escaped such a regional flood in those mountains. Machiavelli observes that rivalry among religious sects does much to erase the memory of the past. He slanders Gregory the Great by claiming he did everything he could to destroy all remains of pagan antiquity. I do not find that such religious zeal has much effect, or that its effects last long. This was clear when Sabinian succeeded Gregory and revived the ancient traditions.
The vicissitude of mutations in the superior globe, are no fit matter for this present argument. It may be, Plato's great year, if the world should last so long, would have some effect; not in renewing the state of like individuals (for that is the fume of those, that conceive the celestial bodies have more accurate influences upon these things below, than indeed they have), but in gross. Comets, out of question, have likewise power and effect, over the gross and mass of things; but they are rather gazed upon, and waited upon in their journey, than wisely observed in their effects; specially in, their respective effects; that is, what kind of comet, for magnitude, color, version of the beams, placing in the reign of heaven, or lasting, produceth what kind of effects.
Changes in the heavens are not a suitable subject for this discussion. Perhaps Plato’s great year would have some effect, if the world lasted that long. It would not bring back the same individual beings or conditions, but might affect things on a broad scale. Such a return is a fantasy of those who imagine heavenly bodies influence earthly things more precisely than they do. Comets, without question, also have power and influence over things on a broad scale. But people gaze at them and follow their journeys rather than carefully study their effects. In particular, they fail to study which kinds of comets produce which kinds of effects. They should consider a comet’s size, color, the direction of its rays, its position in the heavens, and its duration.
There is a toy which I have heard, and I would not have it given over, but waited upon a little. They say it is observed in the Low Countries (I know not in what part) that every five and thirty years, the same kind and suit of years and weathers come about again; as great frosts, great wet, great droughts, warm winters, summers with little heat, and the like; and they call it the Prime. It is a thing I do the rather mention, because, computing backwards, I have found some concurrence.
I have heard a curious idea that I would not dismiss, but would watch for a while. They say people in the Low Countries have observed it, though I do not know in which part. Every thirty-five years, the same pattern of years and weather is said to return. This includes severe frosts, heavy rains, severe droughts, warm winters, summers with little heat, and the like. They call this cycle the Prime. I mention it especially because, looking back over past years, I have found some agreement with this pattern.
But to leave these points of nature, and to come to men. The greatest vicissitude of things amongst men, is the vicissitude of sects and religions. For those orbs rule in men's minds most. The true religion is built upon the rock; the rest are tossed, upon the waves of time. To speak, therefore, of the causes of new sects; and to give some counsel concerning them, as far as the weakness of human judgment can give stay, to so great revolutions. When the religion formerly received, is rent by discords; and when the holiness of the professors of religion, is decayed and full of scandal; and withal the times be stupid, ignorant, and barbarous; you may doubt the springing up of a new sect; if then also, there should arise any extravagant and strange spirit, to make himself author thereof. All which points held, when Mahomet published his law. If a new sect have not two properties, fear it not; for it will not spread. The one is the supplanting, or the opposing, of authority established; for nothing is more popular than that. The other is the giving license to pleasures, and a voluptuous life. For as for speculative heresies (such as were in ancient times the Arians, and now the Arminians), though they work mightily upon men's wits, yet they do not produce any great alterations in states; except it be by the help of civil occasions. There be three manner of plantations of new sects. By the power of signs and miracles; by the eloquence, and wisdom, of speech and persuasion; and by the sword. For martyrdoms, I reckon them amongst miracles; because they seem to exceed the strength of human nature: and I may do the like, of superlative and admirable holiness of life. Surely there is no better way, to stop the rising of new sects and schisms, than to reform abuses; to compound the smaller differences; to proceed mildly, and not with sanguinary persecutions; and rather to take off the principal authors by winning and advancing them, than to enrage them by violence and bitterness.
But let us leave these questions of nature and turn to human affairs. The greatest changes in human affairs are changes in sects and religions. These powers have the strongest hold on people’s minds. The true religion is built on rock. The rest are tossed on the waves of time. Let us therefore consider what causes new sects and offer some advice about them. Weak human judgment can offer only limited stability amid such great upheavals. Suppose the established religion is torn by conflict, and its followers’ holiness has declined into scandal. Suppose also that the times are dull, ignorant, and barbarous. Then you may fear that a new sect will arise. This is especially so if someone with an extreme and unusual spirit emerges to found it. All these conditions existed when Muhammad proclaimed his law. If a new sect lacks two qualities, do not fear it, for it will not spread. The first is overthrowing or opposing established authority, for nothing is more popular than that. The second is allowing free rein to pleasure and a life of sensual indulgence. Heresies concerning abstract doctrine, such as those of the ancient Arians and the present-day Arminians, strongly engage people’s minds. Yet they produce no great changes in states unless political circumstances help them. There are three ways to establish new sects. They spread through signs and miracles, through eloquent and wise speech and persuasion, or through the sword. I count martyrdoms among miracles because they seem to exceed the strength of human nature. I would also place exceptionally great and admirable holiness of life in that category. Surely the best way to stop new sects and religious divisions from arising is to correct abuses and settle smaller disagreements. Act gently, rather than through bloody persecution. Neutralize the leading founders by winning them over and promoting them, rather than enraging them with violence and harshness.
The changes and vicissitude in wars are many; but chiefly in three things; in the seats or stages of the war; in the weapons; and in the manner of the conduct. Wars, in ancient time, seemed more to move from east to west; for the Persians, Assyrians, Arabians, Tartars (which were the invaders) were all eastern people. It is true, the Gauls were western; but we read but of two incursions of theirs: the one to Gallo-Grecia, the other to Rome. But east and west have no certain points of heaven; and no more have the wars, either from the east or west, any certainty of observation. But north and south are fixed; and it hath seldom or never been seen that the far southern people have invaded the northern, but contrariwise. Whereby it is manifest that the northern tract of the world, is in nature the more martial region: be it in respect of the stars of that hemisphere; or of the great continents that are upon the north, whereas the south part, for aught that is known, is almost all sea; or (which is most apparent) of the cold of the northern parts, which is that which, without aid of discipline, doth make the bodies hardest, and the courages warmest.
Wars change in many ways, but chiefly in three areas: where they are fought, their weapons, and how they are conducted. In ancient times, wars seemed to move more from east to west. The Persians, Assyrians, Arabians, and Tartars, who were the invaders, were all eastern peoples. The Gauls, it is true, were western. But we read of only two invasions by them, one into Gallo-Grecia, the other into Rome. Yet east and west have no fixed points in the heavens. Likewise, no reliable pattern can be found in wars coming from either east or west. But north and south are fixed. Peoples from the far south have seldom or never been seen invading northern peoples. Instead, the reverse has happened. This makes it clear that the northern part of the world is naturally the more warlike region. This may be due to the stars of that hemisphere. Or it may be due to the great northern landmasses. The southern part, as far as is known, is almost entirely sea. Or, most evidently, it may be due to the cold in northern regions. Without any help from military training, that cold makes bodies toughest and courage fiercest.
Upon the breaking and shivering of a great state and empire, you may be sure to have wars. For great empires, while they stand, do enervate and destroy the forces of the natives which they have subdued, resting upon their own protecting forces; and then when they fail also, all goes to ruin, and they become a prey. So was it in the decay of the Roman empire; and likewise in the empire of Almaigne, after Charles the Great, every bird taking a feather; and were not unlike to befall to Spain, if it should break. The great accessions and unions of kingdoms, do likewise stir up wars; for when a state grows to an over-power, it is like a great flood, that will be sure to overflow. As it hath been seen in the states of Rome, Turkey, Spain, and others. Look when the world hath fewest barbarous peoples, but such as commonly will not marry or generate, except they know means to live (as it is almost everywhere at this day, except Tartary), there is no danger of inundations of people; but when there be great shoals of people, which go on to populate, without foreseeing means of life and sustentation, it is of necessity that once in an age or two, they discharge a portion of their people upon other nations; which the ancient northern people were wont to do by lot; casting lots what part should stay at home, and what should seek their fortunes. When a warlike state grows soft and effeminate, they may be sure of a war. For commonly such states are grown rich in the time of their degenerating; and so the prey inviteth, and their decay in valor, encourageth a war.
When a great state or empire breaks apart, you can be sure that wars will follow. While great empires stand, they weaken and destroy the military strength of the peoples they have conquered. Those peoples come to rely on the empire’s forces for protection. When those forces also fail, everything falls into ruin, and the conquered peoples become prey. This happened as the Roman Empire declined. It also happened in the German Empire after Charlemagne, with everyone taking a share of the spoils. Much the same would likely happen to Spain if it broke apart. Large territorial gains and unions of kingdoms also stir up wars. When a state becomes too powerful, it resembles a great flood that is sure to overflow. This has been seen in Rome, Turkey, Spain, and other states. When the world has few barbarous peoples, there is no danger of nations being flooded by invading populations. Most people then will not marry or have children unless they know they have the means to live. This is the case almost everywhere today, except in Tartary. But great masses of people sometimes keep multiplying without considering how they will support themselves. They must then send some of their people into other nations once every generation or two. The ancient northern peoples used to decide this by drawing lots. The lots determined who would stay home and who would seek their fortunes elsewhere. When a warlike state becomes soft and loses its toughness, it can be sure of war. Such states have usually grown rich during their decline. Their wealth invites attack, and their failing courage encourages it.
As for the weapons, it hardly falleth under rule and observation: yet we see even they, have returns and vicissitudes. For certain it is, that ordnance was known in the city of the Oxidrakes in India; and was that, which the Macedonians called thunder and lightning, and magic. And it is well known that the use of ordnance, hath been in China above two thousand years. The conditions of weapons, and their improvement, are; First, the fetching afar off; for that outruns the danger; as it is seen in ordnance and muskets. Secondly, the strength of the percussion; wherein likewise ordnance do exceed all arietations and ancient inventions. The third is, the commodious use of them; as that they may serve in all weathers; that the carriage may be light and manageable; and the like.
Weapons hardly follow any fixed rules or patterns. Yet we see that even they go through cycles and changes. It is certain that artillery was known in the city of the Oxidrakes in India. This was what the Macedonians called thunder and lightning, and magic. It is also well known that artillery has been used in China for over two thousand years. Weapons and their improvements have three main requirements. First is long range, which allows them to strike from beyond danger, as artillery and muskets do. Second is the force of impact. Here too, artillery surpasses all battering rams and ancient inventions. Third is ease of use. Weapons should work in all weather, be light and manageable to transport, and offer similar practical advantages.
For the conduct of the war: at the first, men rested extremely upon number: they did put the wars likewise upon main force and valor; pointing days for pitched fields, and so trying it out upon an even match and they were more ignorant in ranging and arraying their battles. After, they grew to rest upon number rather competent, than vast; they grew to advantages of place, cunning diversions, and the like: and they grew more skilful in the ordering of their battles.
As for the conduct of war, at first men relied heavily on sheer numbers. They also relied on brute force and courage. They set dates for pitched battles and fought them out on equal terms. They knew less about arranging their troops and forming battle lines. Later, they came to rely on sufficient numbers rather than vast armies. They learned to use favorable terrain, clever diversions, and similar tactics. They also became more skillful at organizing their forces for battle.
In the youth of a state, arms do flourish; in the middle age of a state, learning; and then both of them together for a time; in the declining age of a state, mechanical arts and merchandize. Learning hath his infancy, when it is but beginning and almost childish; then his youth, when it is luxuriant and juvenile; then his strength of years, when it is solid and reduced; and lastly, his old age, when it waxeth dry and exhaust. But it is not good to look too long upon these turning wheels of vicissitude, lest we become giddy. As for the philology of them, that is but a circle of tales, and therefore not fit for this writing.
In a state’s youth, military power flourishes. In its middle age, learning flourishes. Then both flourish together for a time. In its decline, practical crafts and trade flourish. Learning has its infancy, when it is just beginning and is almost childish. Then comes its youth, when it is rich in growth and youthful excess. Then comes its maturity, when it is solid and well ordered. Finally comes its old age, when it grows dry and exhausted. But we should not watch these turning wheels of change too long, for fear of becoming dizzy. As for scholarly accounts of these changes, they are merely a cycle of stories, unsuited to this essay.